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Author Topic: • How to Calculate the Basketball Expected Wins ? • Cómo Calcular las Victorias Probables en Baloncesto ?  (Read 533234 times)
BGA Roberto Azar
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 14, 2018, 10:23:49 AM »

How to Calculate the Basketball Expected Wins ?
Cómo Calcular las Victorias Probables en Baloncesto ?


• Pace Factor and the  Offensive / Defensive Efficiency
• Ritmo de Juego y la Eficiencia Ofensiva / Defensiva


( para Traducción al Español= Ver el Mesaje Anterior )

Commentary: The probabilities could be estimated by using information on teams' performances in the previously played games. By example, if in the first 2/3  total games played of the season, Team A's winning percentage was .582,  we could use .582 as the probability of winning each game.

However, in the NBA there is a significant difference between winning percentages for home games and for games on the road.

See "Home & Road Stats: friendly stats-man" Discussion at the  Forum. Another reference to this calculation, the quality of the opponent would raise or lower that Winning Percentage probability.

What is the Pace Factor ?:
Is an estimate of the number of possessions per 40 or 48 minutes by a team and its opponents. The formula is:


..............................( 0.44* total FTA ) + total FGA + total TO - total ORB
Pace=  48 or 40 * --------------------------------------------------------------------

..............................................................2 * tmMP

References: "total" includes "our team + opponents".

What are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ?:
Offensive Efficiency is an estimate of the number of points scored per 100 possessions. It is calculated as follows:


..........................................................POINTS
Offense =
 ..100 * ------------------------------------------------------
...............................tm FGA - tm ORB + tm TO + 0.44*tm FTA

Defensive Efficiency is an estimate of the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. It is calculated as follows:

.......................................................opp POINTS
Defense =
...100 * ---------------------------------------------------------
...............................opp FGA - oppORB + opp TO + 0.44*opp FTA


Coachtube and Tom Izzo

Message Updated and Enhanced on September 14th, 2018

Smiley  Prof. Roberto Azar - eBA Stats Team - The Basketball Statistics Analysis

Visit: The eBA Stats Group Portal
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BGA Roberto Azar
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Posts: 1507



« Reply #3 on: Sep 14, 2018, 10:22:58 AM »

How to Calculate the Basketball Expected Wins ?
Cómo Calcular las Victorias Probables en Baloncesto ?


• Ritmo de Juego y la Eficiencia Ofensiva / Defensiva
• Pace Factor and the Offensive / Defensive Efficiency


( for English Translation= See the Next Message )

Comentario: Las probabilidades deberían ser estimadas a través del uso de la información de las performances de los equipos en los partidos previamente disputados. Por ejemplo, si en los primeros 2/3 de la temporada, el porcentaje de victorias fue de .582, podríamos utilizar .582 como la probabilidad de ganar cada partido.

Sin embargo, en la NBA hay una significativa diferencia entre los porcentajes de victoria para partidos de local y para partidos de visitante.

Ver el debate sobre "Estadísticas de Partidos Local & Visitante: diferencias" en el Foro. Otra referencia para este cálculo, la calidad del oponente elevará o disminuirá esa probabilidad de Porcentaje de Victoria.

Qué es el Factor del Ritmo de Juego ?:
Es una estimativa del número de posesiones por 40 o 48 minutos por un equipo y sus oponentes. La fórmula es:

.........................................( 0.44* total TLi ) + total Ti + total BP - total rebOf
Ritmo de Juego=  48 o 40 * -------------------------------------------------------

.........................................................................2 * MJ equipo

Referencias: "total" incluye "nuestro equipo + oponentes".

Qué son las Eficiencias Ofensiva y Defensiva ?:
Eficiencia Ofensiva es una estimativa del número de puntos convertidos por 100 posesiones. Es calculada como sigue:

..........................................................PUNTOS
Ofensiva =  100 * -------------------------------------------------------

...............................
equ Ti - equ RO + equ BP + 0.44*equ TLi

Eficiencia Defensiva es una estimativa del número de puntos concedidos por 100 posesiones. Es calculada como sigue:

......................................................opon PUNTOS
Defensa = ...100 * ---------------------------------------------------------

.................................opon Ti - opon RO + opon BP + 0.44*opo TLi


Pat Summitt and Coachtube

Mensaje Actualizado y Aumentado el 14 de Septiembre, 2018

Smiley Prof. Roberto Azar  - eBA Stats Team - Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto



Visite: Los Blogs de las Estadísticas del Grupo eBA Stats
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Pablo Bahia
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Posts: 300


« Reply #2 on: Jan 21, 2006, 04:19:16 PM »

How to Calculate the Basketball Expected Wins ?
Cómo Calcular las Victorias Probables en Baloncesto ?


• There´s a more simple way to calculate it
• Para la NBA, hay una forma más simple


para la NBA, hay una forma más simple (there´s a more simple way to calculate it):

((ppg-opponent ppg) * 2.7) + 41 (la mitad de los partidos jugados. Half of the games played).

Estos son los resultados para la temporada 2004-2005 (these are the 2004-2005 expected wins):

ATL   15
BOS   43
CHA   25
CHI   44
CLE   43
DAL   56
DEN   46
DET   51
GSW   35
HOU   52
IND   43
LAC   39
LAL   33
MEM   47
MIA   59
MIL   33
MIN   45
NJN   37
NOH   22
NYK   35
ORL   35
PHI   39
PHO   60
POR   30
SAC   47
SAS   62
SEA   47
TOR   36
UTA   29
WAS   40



Visite: La Enciclopedia eBA del Baloncesto y las Estadísticas
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HBC JLTrezeguet
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Posts: 1253



« Reply #1 on: Jan 21, 2006, 02:53:37 PM »

How to Calculate the Basketball Expected Wins ? •  Cómo Calcular las Victorias Probables en Baloncesto ?

• Using a logistics regression model
• Usando un modelo de regresión logística


( para Traducción al Español: Ver a Continuación )

Expected Wins are calculated using a logistics regression model. The functional form of the model is:

   log(WPct / (1 - WPct)) = ג1*log ( Team Points Scored / Team Points Allowed )
    
    Reference:         WPct   = Team Winning Percentage
          
The estimated value of ג1 is approximately 14. Substituting into the formula above and solving for WPct yields:

.........................exp (14*log ( Team Points Scored / Team Points Allowed ))
     expWPct = ---------------------------------------------------------------

....................... + exp (14*log ( Team Points Scored / Team Points Allowed ))


which simplifies to:

..........................................( Team Points Scored^14 )
     expWPct = ---------------------------------------------------------------

............................( Team Points Scored^14 +  Team Points Allowed^14 )


Expected Wins are then calculated based on the team's Expected Winning Percentage. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5, the rmse is 3.48 wins.

Smiley  Jean Louis Trezeguet - eBA Stats Team - The Basketball Statistics Analysis

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La Probabilidad de Victorias es calculada usando un modelo de regresión logística. La fórmula funcional del modelo es:

    log(WPct / (1 - WPct)) = ג1*log ( Puntos Convertidos / Puntos en Contra )
    
    Referencia:         WPct   = Porcentaje de Victorias del Equipo
          
El valor estimado de ג1 es aproximadamente 14. Substituyendo en la  fórmula anterior y resolviendo por WPct rendimiento:

...............................exp (14*log ( Puntos Convertidos / Puntos en Contra ))
     expWPct = --------------------------------------------------------------

........................... + exp (14*log ( Puntos Convertidos / Puntos en Contra ))


lo cual se simplifica a:

..............................................(Puntos Convertidos/^14 )
     expWPct = --------------------------------------------------------------

..............................(Puntos Convertidos^14 + Puntos en Contra^14 )


Las Victorias Probables son entonces calculadas en base al Porcentaje Estimado de Victorias del Equipo. Usando esta fórmula para todas las temporadas BAA, NBA y ABA, la raíz cuadrada media de error (rmse) es de 3.14 victorias. Usando un exponente de 16.5, el rmse es de 3.48 victorias.


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Coach George
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Posts: 500


« on: Jan 21, 2006, 02:19:17 PM »

How to Calculate the Basketball Expected Wins ? •  Cómo Calcular las Victorias Probables en Baloncesto ?

• How are Expected Wins calculated?
• Cómo son calculadas las Victorias Probables (o la Probabilidad de Victorias) ?


( para Traducción al Español: Ver a Continuación )

How are Expected Wins calculated? Is there any article in eBA Stats about this topic ?

Visit: The eBA Stats Group WITH YOU on Google PLUS


The eBA Stats Group at eBA-Stats.com ® is one of the largest non-commercial basketball statistics analysis group bilingual ( English & Spanish ) websites in the world. All our sites, eBA-Stats.com ~ eBAforums.com ~ eBAwords.com ~ eBAclinics.com & eBAblogs.com, has been built as a Basketball in general and Statistics in particular labor of love.
The eBA-Stats.com® Group is becoming a primary source of information and services for basketball coaches at the game statistical analysis area. In our last two years of professional life, the Site eBA-Stats.com® became the quickest and modern road to that information. eBA Stats Group is also in Google +, Facebook and Twitter, and in 3 Basketball Video Channels ! Enjoy it ! In this photograph presented by #eBAStatsGroup #BasketballStatistics Analysis .


The eBA Stats Group at eBA-Stats.com ® (click on the picture to reach the website!) is one of the largest non-commercial basketball statistics analysis group bilingual ( English & Spanish ) websites in the world.
All our sites, eBA-Stats.com ~ eBAforums.com ~ eBAwords.com ~ eBAclinics.com ~eBAsystem.com & eBAblogs.com, has been built as a Basketball in general and Statistics in particular labor of love.
The eBA-Stats.com® Group is becoming a primary source of information and services for basketball coaches at the game statistical analysis area. In our last two years of professional life, the Site eBA-Stats.com® became the quickest and modern road to that information.
eBA Stats Group is also in Google +, Facebook and Twitter, and in 3 Basketball Video Channels ! Enjoy it !


Cómo son calculadas las Victorias Probables (o la Probabilidad de Victorias) ? Hay algún artículo en eBA Stats sobre el tema ?

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Visite: El Grupo eBA Stats CONTIGO en Facebook !

etiquetas= basketbal,baloncesto,estadísticas del baloncesto,entrenamiento deportivo,juegos y deportes,cáculo de victorias probables
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