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Author Topic: • About the Basketball Possessions Concept & Analysis • Sobre el Concepto y Análisis de las Posesiones en Baloncesto  (Read 560093 times)
BGA Roberto Azar
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« Reply #25 on: Feb 24, 2018, 07:50:10 AM »

About the Basketball Possessions Concept & Analysis
Sobre el Concepto y Análisis de las Posesiones en Baloncesto


• Sobre Rebotes, Posesiones y la Fortaleza de un Equipo en Baloncesto
• About Rebounds, Possessions and the Strength of a Basketball Team


( for English Translation= See Below )

La fortaleza de un equipo no está establecida ultimativamente por cuántas oportunidades de conversión el equipo obtiene ( lo que nuestro 'Sistema eBA de Análisis Creativo de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto' llama "jugadas" ), sino por el contrario en cuánto mejor es el equipo en convertir con las posesiones que obtiene.

No existe el "bonus" porque las posesiones son aproximadamente iguales entre un equipo y su oponente en un partido dado. La forma en que nosotros definimos las posesiones (vea aquí este excelente hilo en este foro: Posesiones en Baloncesto: Sobre el Concepto, es el tiempo desde cuando un equipo obtiene el balón hasta cuando el otro equipo lo obtiene de vuelta.

Las posesiones tienen propiedades inherentes que las hacen increíblemente útiles, la más importante es que el número de posesiones entre un equipo y el otro sea equivalente.

El 'Sistema eBA de Análisis Creativo de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto', que está siendo estudiado actualmente en el Sistema eBA, aplica una fórmula que separa los rebotes ofensivos de los defensivos cuando se analiza la performance y los porcentajes individuales y de equipo.

Miami Heat's Chris Andersen, left, grabs a rebound from Indiana Pacers' Tyler Hansbrough during the second half of Game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference basketball finals in Indianapolis, Sunday, May 26, 2013. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
Photograph: Naples Daily News


La razón de esta fórmula reside en que yo pienso que un rebote ofensivo tiene mucho más valor y debe ser valuado en forma diferente.

Por qué ? Si el jugador que estamos analizando no está en el campo, en teoría un rebote defensivo es mucho más probable que resulte de un lanzamiento errado que un rebote ofensivo.

En promedio, la relación de rebotes ofensivos es de alrededor de 3:7. Si asumimos que todos los jugadores contribuyen por igual, el jugador que estamos analizado contribuye .6 rebotes ofensivos, entonces el resto de su equipo obtendrá 2.4 rebotes ofensivos per 10 lanzamientos errados ( suficientemente cerca del
25% ).

Entonces, un rebote ofensivo significa .75 más posesiones que las previstas, un rebote defensivo .25 más.


Ello será analizado en futuros estudios del 'Sistema eBA de Análisis Creativo de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto'.

Dudas ?   Envíenos sus preguntas y comentarios por medio de eBA InterMail !

Smiley Prof.
- eBA Stats Team - Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto

Extracto seleccionado de los debates en la Chat de la concluidad Clínica Anual del Sistema eBA sobre esta temática "Rebotes & Posesiones en Baloncesto": ACTUALIZADO & AUMENTADO el 24 de Febrero, 2018


Harvard researchers have used Odyssey to dig deep into NBA player data, creating a new statistical framework for basketball analytics. The research, led by Kirk Goldsberry, Visiting Scholar at the Center for Geographic Analysis, Luke Bornn, Assistant Professor in the Department of Statistics, Dan Cervone, and Alex D’Amour both PhD students in the Department of Statistics, uses player data from the 2012-2013 NBA season. The dataset, known as SportVU, was collected at 14 NBA arenas and contains 800 million locations of NBA players on the court.
Image and Text: harvard.edu

Harvard researchers have used Odyssey to dig deep into NBA player data, creating a new statistical framework for basketball analytics. The research, led by Kirk Goldsberry, Visiting Scholar at the Center for Geographic Analysis, Luke Bornn, Assistant Professor in the Department of Statistics, Dan Cervone, and Alex D’Amour both PhD students in the Department of Statistics, uses player data from the 2012-2013 NBA season. The dataset, known as SportVU, was collected at 14 NBA arenas and contains 800 million locations of NBA players on the court.

To make sense of this data, Cervone and D’Amour proposed the theory of assigning a value to each basketball possession. If all possessions could be valued, a model could be designed using the SportVU data with metrics such as the locations of players, player scoring abilities, player ball possession, player court position, and player ball handling. Running this type of statistical model would provide analysts with a scientific assessment of “expected possession value” or EPV. Player performance could be statistically quantified at any point in the game. Coaches could use this information to adopt specific strategies for specific players at specific times.

With the model in place, researchers turned to Research Computing’s Odyssey cluster for computation. The database researchers built totaled 93 gigabytes. A full analysis of this database required 500 parallel processors and two terabytes of memory. Without the computational power of Odyssey, the analysis of such a large dataset would have been impossible outside of the cluster environment.

The results from the computational run were what most NBA fans would expect. Chris Paul, point guard for the Los Angeles Clippers, had the highest EPV with 3.48 points added per game. According to the researchers, this meant the Clippers were expected to score 3.48 more points per game because Paul controlled the ball on offense. Ricky Rubio, point guard for the Minnesota Timberwolves, had the lowest EPV with -3.33 points “added” per game. Because Rubio is a poor shooter, each time he takes a shot it would be statistically preferable if a teammate took the shot instead. While Rubio’s ball handling skills do add value, his overall EPV is reduced because of shooting weakness.

As datasets grow in size, complexity, and importance, the NBA will not be the only organization looking to high performance computing as a way to measure and model value. What the Harvard researchers essentially revealed is with the right model and numerous useful data points, anything can be scientifically quantified and potentially transform our understanding of the world around us.

###

The academic paper is titled “POINTWISE: Predicting Points and Valuing Decisions in Real Time with NBA Optical Tracking Data,” and can be found here.

The article “DataBall” by Kirk Goldsberry, which the above draws from, can be found at Grantland.


The strength of a team is not established as the end result of a process by how many more opportunities at scoring it gets ( what our eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System call "plays" ), but on the contrary how much better it is at scoring with the possessions it has.

There's no "bonus" because possessions are imprecise but fairly close to be equal between a team and its opponent in any determined game. The way we define possessions (see here this excellent thread in this forum: Basketball Possessions: About the Concept, is the time from when one team gets the ball to when the other team gets it back.

Possessions have built-in attributes that make them unmeasurable utilitarians, the largest amount of which being that the number of possessions between a team and their opponents are identical.

The eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System, which is being studied in the eBA System, applies a formula that separates offensive and defensive rebounds when we analyze the team and player rebounding percentages and performance.

Miami Heat's Chris Andersen, left, grabs a rebound from Indiana Pacers' Tyler Hansbrough during the second half of Game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference basketball finals in Indianapolis, Sunday, May 26, 2013. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
Photograph: Naples Daily News


The reason to perform separate analysis is because I think an offensive rebound is far more valuable and must be evaluated in a different way.

Why? If the player who we're analyzing wasn't on the court, in theory a defensive rebound is far more likely to result from a missed shot than an offensive rebound.

On average, the ratio of offensive boards is about 3:7. If we assume that everyone contributes equally, the player we're analyzing contributes .6 offensive boards, so the rest of his team would get 2.4 offensive boards per 10 missed shots (close enough to 25%).

Thus, an offensive board means .75 more possessions than expected, a defensive board .25 more.


This can be addressed in future studies from the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System.

A selected excerpt from the discussions at the concluded eBA Annual Analysis System Clinic Chat about this topic "Basketball Possessions & Rebounds": UPDATED & ENHANCED on February 24th., 2018

Doubts ? Send us your questions and commentaries by means of eBA InterMail !

By Professor




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BGA Roberto Azar
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« Reply #24 on: Jan 10, 2013, 07:37:13 AM »

About the Basketball Possessions Concept & Analysis
Sobre el Concepto y Análisis de las Posesiones en Baloncesto


• Posesiones en Baloncesto: Sobre el Concepto en 2 Situaciones
• Basketball Possessions: About the Concept in 2 Situations


( for English Translation: See Below )

Cuando utilizamos las posesiones para calificar ataques y defensas, un excelente ejercicio en el proceso de aprender a conocer el baloncesto, los beneficios de la definición de mi amigo Brian Denver en este hilo se tornan claras. ( Ver los Mensajes Anteriores )

Analizaremos las siguientes 2 situaciones:

1) Un jugador lleva el balón avanzando en el campo, toma un lanzamiento a 6 metros de distancia y convierte.

2) Un jugador lleva el balón avanzando en el campo, toma un lanzamiento a 6 metros de distancia y lo erra, pero un integrante de su mismo equipo toma el rebote, erra el putback, y entonces toma el rebote de su propio lanzamiento y finalmente convierte el gol en un lanzamiento en bandeja.

La primera situación implica una posesión convertida y una posesión total sin relación a cual definición es utilizada.

La segunda situación tiene una convertida y una posesión total utilizando la definición de Denver. ( Ver los Mensajes
Anteriores )

Utilizando el otro significado, esta segunda situación implica una posesión convertida y tres posesiones totales.


Ahora bien, cual situación representa el mejor ataque ?

El análisis de estos términos pueden ser hallados en la  Enciclopedia Global del Básquetbol.

Smiley Prof. - eBA Stats Team - Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto

Visite: Los Blogs de las Estadísticas del Grupo eBA Stats


Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant, left, tries to puts back a missed shot as Denver Nuggets center JaVale McGee defends during the first half of an NBA first-round playoff basketball game, Sunday, April 29, 2012, in Los Angeles.

When using possessions to rate offenses and defenses, an excellent exercise in getting to know basketball, the benefits of the definition of my friend Brian Denver in this thread become clear.

We'll analyze the following 2 situations:
 
1) A  player brings the ball up court, takes a 20 foot jump shot and makes it.

2) A player brings the ball upcourt, takes a 20 foot jump shot and misses, but a teammate rebounds, misses the putback, then get his own rebound and finally puts in a layup.

The first situation involves one scoring possession and one total possession regardless of which definition is used.

The second situation has one scoring and one total possession using Denver's Definition. ( See the Previous Messages )

Using the other meaning, the second situation involves one scoring possession and three total possessions.

Now, which situation represented the better offense ?

The terminology analysis can be found at the  Global Basketball Encyclopedia.


Cheesy Translation & Links:  ebastats - the basketball statistics forum



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BGA Roberto Azar
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« Reply #23 on: Oct 03, 2012, 06:16:02 AM »

About the Basketball Possessions Concept & Analysis
Sobre el Concepto y Análisis de las Posesiones en Baloncesto


• Las Posesiones de Fin de Período
• The Quarter-ending Possessions


( for English Translation= See Below )

Para el Sistema de Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto, una posesión finaliza con un rebote defensivo, un lanzamiento de campo convertido, o un balón perdido. Para los resultados de un partido, las posesiones de fin de período son una importante cuestión de discusión que debe ser resuelta, ya que un equipo puede tener 4  posesiones de fin de cuarto y el otro cero.

Nosotros no contamos ninguna posesión al final del período cuando hay quedan menos ( o igual ) de 8 segundos por jugar y no hay un intento de lanzamiento de campo, tiros libres, o balones perdidos: cuando un equipo tiene una oportunidad real de tener un razonable intento de lanzamiento de campo. Registramos manualmente esas posesiones extras en el reporte de jugada-por-jugada pero no las incluimos en el conteo de las posesiones.

Smiley Prof. - eBA Stats Team - Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto

Visite: El LIBRO del Sistema eBA de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto



Possession Arrow: A brief descritpition on the rule regarding the possession arrow and how to use it for a basketball game.


For the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System, a possession ends with a defensive rebound, a made field goal, or a turnover.  For one game results, quarter-ending possessions are an important question that is in dispute and must be settled, as one team can have 4 ending possessions and the other could have zero.

We don't count any possession at the end of a period when there are less than or equal to 8 seconds left and there are no field goal attempts, free throw attempts, or turnovers: when a team has a realistic chance of getting a reasonable field goal attempt. We register manually those extra possessions in the play-by-play report but we don't include them in the possessions account.


By Professor

Cheesy Translation & Links:  ebastats - the basketball statistics forum



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Carmel Nof
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« Reply #22 on: Oct 02, 2012, 12:58:33 AM »

About the Basketball Possessions Concept & Analysis
Sobre el Concepto y Análisis de las Posesiones en Baloncesto


• End of Period Possessions
• Posesiones del Final del Período


( para Traducción al Español= Ver a Continuación )

How the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System count the possessions when the same team start and end the period with a possession ?


• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •


Como cuenta el Sistema de Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto las posesiones cuando el mismo equipo comienza y finaliza el período con una posesión ?

Cheesy Traducción & Enlaces: ebastats - el foro de las estadísticas del baloncesto



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BGA Roberto Azar
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2009, 05:58:00 AM »

About the Basketball Possessions Concept & Analysis
Sobre el Concepto y Análisis de las Posesiones en Baloncesto


• Diferentes Formulas de Posesiones
• Different Possessions Formulas


( for English Translation= See Below )

Y Usted puede aún agregar esta otra definición proveniente de "A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics" de Dean Oliver entre otros:

Pos = .976 * [ Ti + .44*TLi + BP - ROf ]

El Sistema eBA de Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto aplica la siguiente ecuación:

Pos = Ti + Llegadas-a-la-Línea - 1.07*(ROf / (ROf + Op RDf))*(Ti - T) + BP)

por las mismas razones que están explicadas en este mismo hilo y en mi exposición sobre "Análisis de las Posesiones en Baloncesto" en las Clínicas eBA del Registro de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto.

Smiley Prof. - eBA Stats Team - Análisis de las Estadísticas del Baloncesto

Visite: La Enciclopedia eBA del Baloncesto y las Estadísticas


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And you can add this complementary definition from "A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics" by Dean Oliver and others:

Poss = .976 * [ FGA + .44*FTA + TOV - ORB ]

The eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System applies the following equation:

Poss = FGA + Up-to-the-Line - 1.07*(ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB))*(FGA - FG) + TO)

due to the same reasons still explained in this thread and in my Exposition about "Basketball Possessions Analysis" in the eBA Basketball Statistics Registration Clinics.


By Professor

 Cheesy Translation & Links: ebastats - the basketball statistics forum



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